India’s diesel exports to Europe surged to an all-time high in September 2025, marking the highest volume since data tracking began in 2017. India shipped between 1.3 to 1.4 million metric tons (equivalent to 9.7 to 10.4 million barrels) of diesel to Europe. This spike was driven by strong profit margins in Western markets and reduced diesel supply in Europe due to refinery maintenance.
Indian refiners, who source roughly one-third of their crude oil from Russia, ramped up production and redirected surplus fuel abroad. Total diesel exports from India in September reached nearly 3 million tons, the highest in five years. The East-West price spread for diesel widened to an average of $45 per ton in September, up from less than $30 in August, incentivizing traders to shift volumes westward.
This export boom coincides with rising geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, including an additional 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil. India has criticized the move as unfair, pointing out that China and Europe continue to import more Russian energy than India, yet only India faces such punitive measures. The tariffs have strained diplomatic relations between the two nations.
Shipping costs also declined significantly, further boosting exports. The cost to transport 90,000 tons of refined fuel on the India-Europe route dropped to $3.25–$3.5 million in late September, down from $4–$4.2 million earlier in the month.
However, the surge in exports has tightened supply in Asia. The 10-ppm sulphur gasoil cash premium rose to $1.50 per barrel, the highest in two months. Analysts expect India’s transport fuel exports to decline in October due to increased domestic demand during the Diwali festive season. While exports may dip, strong refining margins could still encourage Indian refiners to maintain some level of overseas sales.
Looking ahead, traders remain cautious about the India-Europe diesel trade route. The European Union’s upcoming 18th sanctions package, targeting refined products derived from Russian oil, could impact India’s fuel exports. Yet, sources suggest that volumes could be replaced by Middle Eastern barrels, which remain readily available.