As Bihar gears up for its upcoming assembly elections, political discussions have taken center stage across the state. The Election Commission is expected to announce the polling dates soon, with voting likely to take place in the last week of October or early November. In the midst of this anticipation, opinion polls have begun to shape the narrative, sparking fresh political momentum.
According to the latest survey conducted by SPICK Media Network, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to secure a clear majority in the Bihar Assembly. The poll estimates that the NDA could win around 158 seats with a 46% vote share, while the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is expected to secure 66 seats and 41% of the votes.
Emerging Players and Smaller Parties
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, contesting for the first time, is predicted to garner 8% of the vote share, although it may not translate into any seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win 1 seat, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) may secure 4 seats.
| Party/Alliance | Seats | Vote Share |
|---|---|---|
| NDA | 158 | 46% |
| Grand Alliance | 66 | 41% |
| AIMIM | 4 | – |
| BSP | 1 | – |
| Jan Suraaj | 0 | 8% |
The Race to the Majority
To form a government in Bihar, a party or coalition must secure at least 122 out of 243 seats. With the NDA projected to cross this threshold comfortably, the focus now shifts to leadership preferences and voter sentiments.
Who Do People Want as Chief Minister?
The survey also revealed surprising insights into public opinion regarding the next Chief Minister:
- Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the top choice with 30.5% support.
- Nitish Kumar followed closely with 27.4%.
- Prashant Kishor received 13%, and Chirag Paswan was favored by 12% of respondents.
This indicates that while the NDA may lead in seat count, public opinion on leadership remains divided.
Electoral Dynamics and Challenges
Bihar’s elections have historically hinged on caste equations, development agendas, and coalition strategies. This time is no different. While the NDA appears poised for victory, supporters of the Grand Alliance have dismissed the survey as political maneuvering. Meanwhile, Jan Suraaj’s debut has added a new dimension to the electoral landscape, potentially influencing vote shares even without winning seats.
As the state awaits the official election schedule, all eyes are on how these projections will shape campaign strategies and voter turnout in the weeks ahead.