Political activity has intensified ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, and the latest JVC survey has revealed some surprising indications. According to the survey, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s popularity remains at its peak, and he is considered the public’s first choice. Significantly, his party, the Janata Dal United (JDU), appears to be gaining significantly this time.
According to the survey, JDU is projected to win 53 seats, 10 more than in 2020. The previous survey, conducted in August 2025, projected JDU to win only 29 seats. This means the party has made a significant leap in both popularity and seat count in just a few weeks.
Nitish Again the Top Choice, Tough Competition Between BJP and RJD
According to the JVC survey, Nitish Kumar remains the most popular candidate for the Chief Minister’s post. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win 71 seats this time, three seats fewer than in 2020.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is projected to win 74 seats in this survey, one seat fewer than in 2020. This means a close contest is likely between the BJP and RJD in the state.
NDA ahead in vote share, but Jan Suraj becomes the ‘X-factor’
In terms of vote share, the NDA is projected to win 41-45% of the vote, while the Grand Alliance is projected to win 37-40%.
The most interesting thing this time is that Prashant Kishore’s party, Jan Suraj, could also see a significant boost. According to the survey, Jan Suraj could get 10-11% of the vote share, making it the ‘X-factor’ of the election.
Who can win how many seats?
NDA alliance: 131 to 150 seats
BJP: 66-77 seats
JDU: 52-58 seats
Other NDA allies: 13-15 seats
Grand Alliance: 81 to 103 seats
RJD: 57-71 seats
Congress: 11-14 seats
Others: 13-18 seats
Other parties
Jan Suraj (PK): 4-6 seats
AIMIM, BSP, and others: 5-6 seats
What does this survey say?
The JVC survey indicates that Nitish Kumar is once again in a strong position in Bihar politics. The sudden increase in his party’s seat tally indicates that the Nitish factor remains influential in the state. However, a close contest continues between the BJP and RJD, and it will be interesting to see whose vote bank will be dented by the growing support base of Jan Suraj.
Conclusion:
The contest in the 2025 Bihar elections is becoming increasingly interesting. While the NDA appears poised for a majority, the Grand Alliance is not far behind. The presence of a new party like Jan Suraj has further complicated the equations. All eyes will be on the direction these figures take in the coming weeks.